Not only did we receive two quickly submitted correct answers but we were showered with a myriad of subsequent personal perspectives. Amazingly, the results center received only two correct answers among a full mailbag which consisted of 4 problems with question wording, arguments about 10 lurking variables not properly defined, 3 paragraphs of plagiarized anti-Bayesian literature, one lesson on medical school loan money, one inside joke, and finally, one box of donuts.
RESULTS:
The correct answer was 0.01099, meaning that there is a 1.099% chance that the student in the car was in medical school.
The race to the correct answer did not come without a story line. Our runner-up responded within minutes with an answer very close to the right one, if it weren't for a forgotten subtraction. However, less than a minute before he corrected his mistake and resubmitted his answer, the crown was stolen by one Ryan "MegaWATT" Watkins, applause please.
Ryan not only provided the correct answer in the fastest time, but he also sent me his work which is outlined in proper Bayesian format (available HERE). He deserves some extra credit for that don't you think? Props to a budding Bayesian-economist-physician.
In following the pageantry of the greatest competitions, lets not forget our runner-up who fought valiantly but was edged out in the end. Every pageant needs a worthy runner-up! Congratulations, Jeffrey "Liberal Libertarian" Nye.
I can not yet reveal the prizes as they have not all been handed out, but rest assured that they are wicked awesome. Keep your eyes peeled for the next Stacey Sizzle competition, I promise it won't be quite so nerdy.
2 comments:
Hardly an interesting problem, even if it were correctly asked. You started with 0.010, then ended with 0.011. Yipidee Skipidee.
Though I would like to point out that a statistician should also know better than to think that "only two people had the right answer." That just means we know the answer was the one you were looking for, duh. (notice I did not say right, because that student had a very small chance of voting liberatarian, and a much bigger chance of simply not voting at all, and thus the question was unanswerable. Nye's point about who would park in that lot is even more statistically sound--do you really think the two populations are normally distributed in that parking lot? Hmm????).
Bill - I think it's time to face the fact that Andrew just really wanted to photoshop his friend's faces on other people's bodies. The stats problem was merely a means to an end in my opinion.
-Lauren
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