The Results Are In

Well, that was a hit.


Not only did we receive two quickly submitted correct answers but we were showered with a myriad of subsequent personal perspectives. Amazingly, the results center received only two correct answers among a full mailbag which consisted of 4 problems with question wording, arguments about 10 lurking variables not properly defined, 3 paragraphs of plagiarized anti-Bayesian literature, one lesson on medical school loan money, one inside joke, and finally, one box of donuts.


RESULTS:

The correct answer was 0.01099, meaning that there is a 1.099% chance that the student in the car was in medical school.

The race to the correct answer did not come without a story line. Our runner-up responded within minutes with an answer very close to the right one, if it weren't for a forgotten subtraction. However, less than a minute before he corrected his mistake and resubmitted his answer, the crown was stolen by one Ryan "MegaWATT" Watkins, applause please.


Ryan not only provided the correct answer in the fastest time, but he also sent me his work which is outlined in proper Bayesian format (available HERE). He deserves some extra credit for that don't you think? Props to a budding Bayesian-economist-physician.

In following the pageantry of the greatest competitions, lets not forget our runner-up who fought valiantly but was edged out in the end. Every pageant needs a worthy runner-up! Congratulations, Jeffrey "Liberal Libertarian" Nye.


I can not yet reveal the prizes as they have not all been handed out, but rest assured that they are wicked awesome. Keep your eyes peeled for the next Stacey Sizzle competition, I promise it won't be quite so nerdy.

Liberally Bayesian

Today the junior editor has decided to design his remarks in the form of a math question. I do this for two reasons, firstly to address the many questions about “Bayesian Statistics” and secondly to point out some irony found across the country.

Ever been to a college campus? If so, you have probably heard the word “diversity” once or twice. In the wake of such a polarizing national election I thought it would be a good idea to take a deeper look at the “diversity” that universities are so proud of.

Let’s create a hypothetical university. Let’s just say this university is located in Columbus, Ohio and has 60,000 students. There are two groups at the university, medical students and non-medical students. Each group is very diverse as illustrated by the following statistics: during the 2008 election 90% of non-medical students and 99% of the medical students supported Barack Obama.

(Aside: Isn’t diversity great!)

One day, as I am pulling into the parking lot of this hypothetical university in Columbus, Ohio with 60,000 students, I see a car pull in next to me with a bumper sticker saying, “Too poor to vote Republican” (a slogan that provides WAY too much ammo for this writer to address on this blog).

Now for the bipartisan question; what is the exact probability that the student driving that car is a medical student? To answer this question you will utilize Bayesian statistical methods (see Wikipedia) whether you realize it or not. Oh, by the way, let me tell you one last integral piece of the problem; we have obtained some ‘prior’ information that there are 600 medical students at the university.

The first person to respond with the correct answer (to the 5^th decimal) will receive a gift that will make all your friends jealous…..I promise.

Happy 8-year Anniversary Andrew

Andrew claims that I only get one anniversary a year...but I prefer to celebrate two. Obviously our wedding, April 25, 2007 is the most important. However, I also think that our first date, November 4, 2000, is a day worth commemorating. I want credit for all 8 years, not just the year and a half that we've been married. So to celebrate this meaningful milestone, I wanted to provide a brief (actually no, it's quite long) synopsis of our 8 year courtship. I just thought it was about time I wrote some stuff down. Andrew, enjoy.

Year 1:

I hate to admit it, but I actually asked Andrew out first. I had boycotted asking guys out on dates and was much more interested in studying than in going to silly college dances, but my friend Lindi convinced me to ask Andrew to Preference a few days before. No one had asked him and I was the only girl who didn't have a date. Word on the street was, Andrew already had a girlfriend at another college (true -- long story) and so no one would ask him out. Andrew was in my freshman ward and I had probably talked to him briefly before, but I only knew him as that crazy guy who walked on the BYU football team. Well, Lindi can talk me into anything, so I broke my two rules about asking guys out and going to silly college dances. Now I'm grateful.


If you knew Andrew freshman year, he'll be easy to pick out. He's the only guy who would ever wear a bright yellow vest in public. If I had known we were going to get married 7 years later, I would have taken a better picture.

It didn't spark into a romance right away (after all, we're slow movers), but we did become instantly great friends which is always the best way to start in my opinion. As just friends we spent a lot of time walking around BYU campus late at night in the freezing cold, just talking (no really, just talking).

Look how young we were! I don't even remember what we were like to be honest.


Our relationship back then might have been based on teasing each other. One time, Andrew found a dumb senior picture of me in my cap and gown and made t-shirts out of it. The caption across the front read "Lauren McCann -- My Idol". We're still friends with all these guys in the picture...and I still see them wearing this shirt occassionally...grrrrrrr.

I like to think that I took pretty good care of Andrew before he went on his mission. This was when he got his wisdom teeth taken out and needed someone to stay with him while he was drugged up. I had never seen a person drool so much. Every once in a while he'd wake up, hand me the bloody gauze from out of his mouth, put some clean gauze back in, mumble something about football, and then go back to sleep. I must have really liked him.



Of course we both knew that changes were coming. Here is Andrew opening his mission call to Milan, Italy. Andrew had been preparing for this experience his whole life. We were all really excited.

Years 2-3:

So Andrew goes to Italy and I go back to school. At first I was pretty sad, but time passed and we occasionally wrote. We both grew up a little.

Year 4:

Well this would be an interesting year. Andrew coming home...Lauren not currently dating anyone. But was it interesting? No, not really. Andrew was kind of weird...Lauren was kind of impatient. Sometimes we were dating...sometimes we weren't. We got really good at the "break up-just be friends- get back together"cycle.

But regardless of relationship status, we still walked. Andrew had a way of finding out what classes I had and sometimes he would meet me after class and walk me to the next one. I could never figure out why he did that. I don't think he knew why either. Then there was Christmas. We had decided not to date and a few days later he came by my apartment to drop off a present before going to Ohio. Out of all the things he could have given me...he gave me two fish. Two fish!? Two living things that I would have to take care of and would remind me of Andrew everyday!?? Andrew still refuses to admit that there could be any symbolism implied with such a gift, but in any case, I fought to keep those fish alive through thick and thin. They made it well past our wedding day.

Eventually, it reached decision time. In the midst of deciding our future, a really strange answer came out of the blue. I should serve a mission - something I wasn't planning on doing. Andrew didn't really think I was serious at first...probably just trying to get him to propose :) haha. I still don't know how I got the guts...must have been because it was right. We said goodbye. My friends and family mourned what they probably believed to be my only chance at marriage :)

I went to Japan
Andrew, devastated over my departure, rebelled and tried (unsuccessfully) to grow a beard.

Nice try. He had more success in other endeavors.

Year 5:

I conquered fears.

Andrew conquered mountains.

Year 6:

The moment of truth. Would the stars finally align? This time around, I was weird and Andrew was ... luckily patient.

Grand Canyon

Jackson Hole

Raft races down the Provo River

Year 7

Thanksgiving

And just when our friends were about to lose all hope, we finally got engaged....on a Sunday morning in December...at around 6 am. I guess it was a busy week.

My sign at the Las Vegas bowl.

I usually hate kissing pictures, but I make an exception when the background is incredible.


Here's to eight more miele.

Dad and Luke Have a Man-to-Man

My world of sleep is over

I just had a realization as I was driving home from visiting teaching this morning: I will probably never really sleep again. It's not like I haven't had this thought before, but it actually is starting to sink in. There have been other sleepless times in my life. For example, my freshman year of college was full of all-nighters. From forgetting about the paper due the next day, to hanging around with Andrew or my girlfriends until the wee hours of the morning. But that was different. I always knew I could just make up the sleep the next day and as embarrassing as it is to admit, I usually did and in the most random of public places. I look back and can't believe how unashamed I was to just fall asleep in a hallway before my next class.

This is different. I know that my friend Kimi will read this and I will have further scared her away from ever having kids. So lest I put all the blame on motherhood, that really is not the culprit. Luke actually sleeps like a champ...sometimes all night in fact (enjoy it while you can buddy). I will probably never really sleep again by pure choice. (And before I get a plethora of comments about how important sleep is to my health, keep in mind I'm talking about McCann sleep....that's a minimum of 8 hours, preferably 10 or 11). Even if Luke was the reason for my lack of sleep...who wouldn't miss out on sleep to cuddle up with this cutie.


If I wanted to, though it would be completely insane and illogical, I could ask Andrew to wake up with the baby at night. Or I could go to bed early instead of staying up to work or clean the house or blog or do all the other random things that seem to catch my attention at midnight. I could even sleep in (and actually I do most mornings, but I'm realizing that I'm going to have to cut that out). The truth is, I'm choosing not to sleep because there are so many good/fun things to do that I just can't waste time sleeping. Luckily, the women that I visit teach helped me feel excited about this realization. I was feeling tired this morning as I dragged Luke out of bed and ran like crazy around the house to make it to our appointment. But when I met with these friends, I realized that they didn't get any sleep either. But they were happy and excited about the things going on in their lives. I appreciated their attitudes and realized that I'm choosing to wake up because life's too short to waste on excess sleep.

This doesn't mean I'm going to walk around feeling tired all the time. I learned in Japan that God can really help out with this obstacle. Some days I was SO tired. The alarm would go off at 6:30 am and I would think that there was no possible way that I was going to wake up. After I woke up I thought there was no possible way that I was going to make it through my study or be able to ride my bike 20 miles. But I did, and it's all because the Lord is able to lift us up and fill us with energy so we can do what we need to do. There are more than enough scriptures that promise He will. That's my thought for the day.

Swing-State Blues

One would hope that election season would be a somewhat happy time for Americans. After all, it is a reminder of what makes America great. We have the freedom to elect representation that ultimately has the responsibility to carry out the mind and will of the people.

When I realized that I was going to become an Ohioan, I was excited to live in a state where my vote might have a little more sway. My two previous presidential elections were in Utah and while I voted both times with pride, the results were never shocking. I tried to research whether or not Utah has ever given their electoral votes to a democratic presidential candidate but I have still not found the data.

Ohio has lived up to its promise of a lively election season. For instance, if I had the desire (and no Lukey to take care of) I could be 15 minutes away listening to Michelle Obama at this very moment. I'm always surprised to hear that the presidential candidates are in the area. In Utah, the closest I ever came to a candidate was when their plane was passing overhead. I should feel excited to be in the middle of such angst and excitement. Instead I feel what I can only describe as the swing-state blues.

For instance, I haven't seen a normal commercial in months. Every commercial is one candidate slamming another for reasons a, b and c. The next commercial is his opponent stating the exact opposite. Sometimes, the third commercial in succession is actually the former candidate again with another plethora of accusations to dump. Who can be trusted? When the media gets involved, the scene only gets uglier. Are these the people I'm supposed to trust? Doing so seems to force me to contradict my better judgment and intuition most of the time. When they claim to be on my side...I wonder what that means. I wonder who they think that I am. Of course, I can't claim any special privilege to the blues simply because I live in Ohio. I think that many people feel the same way. Tired of the fighting and wondering who is telling the truth. I should note that the Stacey Sizzle, Inc. (which a friend kindly commented recently, sounds a bit like the name of a trashy tabloid.....point noted) will not throw all support behind either candidate because the editor-in-chief (Lauren) thinks that they're both bad options. I will vote. However, I don't wish to publicly put my name behind a dirty politician (note that I believe that to be both of them to some degree or another) and will only be tossing my two cents at the lesser of two evils.

Lest I appear to be a pessimist, let me clarify that one cannot feel sad about something that they care nothing about. I only feel blue because I think that America is wonderful. Sometimes all the arguing leads us to think negatively about our political system...some have even told me that they no longer are proud to be an American. I think that an American is ungrateful if he or she does not feel a sense of patriotism and love for the gift of liberty that people have sacrificed their lives to give us. It is sad when we demean and demoralize such a gift. It is sad when we come dangerously close to a socialist extreme as if to completely disregard what history has taught us. It is sad when we see many in political service that have no moral backbone and ride the wave of popularity. But I still think that America's future is bright. Like I stated previously, election season should be a reminder of how great it is to be an American. I think that is how I will overcome my swing-state blues. I have to remember that America is great because we can have frustrating political debates and not have our beliefs dictated to us. It is great because election season will come and go and there is always another one just around the corner. I might be tired of the fighting but every once in while I have to step back and think, "Well, at least we have the privilege to fight".

On a somewhat separate note, if America does undergo difficult economic turmoil and recession over the next several years, I think we will discover that though we may have been spoiled rotten for a time, Americans will be able to survive and make it okay because most of the people are good at the core, despite our differing beliefs. Most people will look out for their neighbor and give what they can. Most people will realize that they have lived in excess and will find joy in a simpler life. Most people will become more grateful that while America may not do everything for them and fix every problem, it will give them options and opportunity. Then, with a little hard work and sweat, we'll make it okay and be all the better for it. That's what I'm praying for at least. But we have to work for it. I have to stop feeling blue and start contributing constructively to the discussion.

Now on to more pictures of Luke....

Fall in Ohio is pretty gorgeous




Luke helping Dad cook some amazing Italian food.

This might be some sort of gang sign...I'm not sure.

This is cuter when you can see that he's copying me.

This video shows the many faces of Luke Stacey. Enjoy.

Thought of the Day

There are two.

First thought:

If you haven't heard Coach Bronco Mendenhall's interview on the Jim Rome show, it's a must hear. Click on this link:

http://www.byucougars.com/Filing.jsp?ID=11130

Way to represent Coach.

Second thought:

Andrew's sister, Jessica, sent us this quote (see below). I think it's pretty cool, especially because recently I've been thinking a lot about CHANGE (wonder why since everyone running for political office has made that their motto). There are many ways that we can have a positive impact in our communities or even in the world. But out of all those many ways, the lessons we learn or teach in the home, trump them all.

"When God wants a great work done in the world or a great wrong righted, he goes about it in a very unusual way. He doesn't stir up his earthquakes or send forth his thunderbolts. Instead, he has a helpless baby born, perhaps in a simple home and of some obscure mother. And then God puts the idea into the mother's heart, and she puts it into the baby's mind. And then God waits. The greatest forces in the world are not the earthquakes and the thunderbolts. The greatest forces in the world are babies." - E.T. Sullivan

Almost a smile



Cougar fans could learn one lesson (and only one lesson) from Buckeye fans. See this sea of red? You better believe that everyone in all of Columbus is wearing scarlet and gray on game day. I think our BYU stands could use a little more blue and white.

The Stacey men came into town to watch a Buckeye game. Even though Andrew is an Ohio native, it has taken a lot to get him to wear red.